The CNB comments on the August 2026 inflation figures
As expected, annual inflation rose to 1.9% in August from 1.7% in July. This was due mainly to a further marked increase in fuel prices, which was partly offset by a continued decline in food prices.
The inflation trend has changed little in recent months. Volatile diesel, petrol and food prices are significantly affecting headline inflation. Fuel prices rose by more than 7% month on month in August and were 26% higher year on year (17% in July). The price of diesel reached a four-year high in August, and developments at the start of September suggest that fuel prices have not yet finished rising. The increase in fuel prices alone added almost 0.3 percentage point to annual inflation in August. On the other hand, food prices continued to decline at an unexpectedly strong pace. On average, food prices were 4.3% lower year on year in August (−3.1% in July). The decline in food prices is relatively broad-based, with food prices falling to their lowest level in two years on average. The turnaround indicated by commodity markets and by reports of a poor harvest this year therefore continues to be pushed back.
By contrast, core inflation remained stabilised at 3.0% in August. However, this is the highest level in a year. A slowdown in the growth of the cost of owner-occupied housing (imputed rent) to 5.4% year on year (5.7% in July) was a positive surprise. This was reflected in lower services price growth, which, however, remained elevated at 4.4% (4.6% in July). Conversely, growth in goods prices accelerated by 0.2 percentage point to 0.6%.
Inflation is likely to rise above 2% in September, driven by further growth in fuel prices. It may pick up further in the subsequent months. Headline inflation will probably temporarily exceed 3% at the start of next year. Core inflation will remain elevated but still close to 3% in the coming months.
The elevated inflation outlook for next year, reflecting the evolution of core inflation and global inflation pressures (energy, food), is a reason for increased caution in monetary policy.
Petr Sklenář, Executive Director of the Monetary Department
Fuel prices again increase inflation in August
The CNB comments on the August 2026 inflation figures
As expected, annual inflation rose to 1.9% in August from 1.7% in July. This was due mainly to a further marked increase in fuel prices, which was partly offset by a continued decline in food prices.
The inflation trend has changed little in recent months. Volatile diesel, petrol and food prices are significantly affecting headline inflation. Fuel prices rose by more than 7% month on month in August and were 26% higher year on year (17% in July). The price of diesel reached a four-year high in August, and developments at the start of September suggest that fuel prices have not yet finished rising. The increase in fuel prices alone added almost 0.3 percentage point to annual inflation in August. On the other hand, food prices continued to decline at an unexpectedly strong pace. On average, food prices were 4.3% lower year on year in August (−3.1% in July). The decline in food prices is relatively broad-based, with food prices falling to their lowest level in two years on average. The turnaround indicated by commodity markets and by reports of a poor harvest this year therefore continues to be pushed back.
By contrast, core inflation remained stabilised at 3.0% in August. However, this is the highest level in a year. A slowdown in the growth of the cost of owner-occupied housing (imputed rent) to 5.4% year on year (5.7% in July) was a positive surprise. This was reflected in lower services price growth, which, however, remained elevated at 4.4% (4.6% in July). Conversely, growth in goods prices accelerated by 0.2 percentage point to 0.6%.
Inflation is likely to rise above 2% in September, driven by further growth in fuel prices. It may pick up further in the subsequent months. Headline inflation will probably temporarily exceed 3% at the start of next year. Core inflation will remain elevated but still close to 3% in the coming months.
The elevated inflation outlook for next year, reflecting the evolution of core inflation and global inflation pressures (energy, food), is a reason for increased caution in monetary policy.
Petr Sklenář, Executive Director of the Monetary Department