The CNB comments on the May 2026 inflation figures
As expected, annual inflation slowed from 2.5% in April to 2.1% in May. This represented a partial correction following the sharp increase in inflation recorded in March and April.
Inflation rose by almost 1 percentage point in March and April, driven by a sharp increase in fuel prices. Fuel prices broadly stabilised in May, and other factors, such as still subdued food prices, thus came to the fore. The annual decline in food and beverage prices deepened from -1.3% in April to -1.9% in May, the steepest drop since summer 2024. However, agricultural commodity prices and month-on-month food price inflation suggest that this trend in food prices is gradually approaching a turning point. Except for volatile items, price developments remained stable and broadly continued their previous trend.
Core inflation remained at 2.9% year on year in May for the third consecutive month. Growth in goods prices slowed slightly (from 0.6% to 0.3% year on year). By contrast, services inflation accelerated again by 0.1 percentage point (to 4.6% year on year). Within services, the closely monitored cost of owner-occupied housing (imputed rent) slowed somewhat to 5.3% year on year in May. Conversely, growth in market rents picked up (6.5% year on year), reaching its highest level in a year and a half. Overall, services inflation, and hence core inflation, remains elevated.
Due partly to the impacts of the Middle East conflict, we expect headline inflation to fluctuate between 2% and 3% in the rest of this year. The elevated core inflation and the increase in the inflation outlook driven by global cost pressures are reasons for increased caution. Importantly, domestic monetary policy continues to have a restrictive effect despite the previous rise in inflation.
Petr Sklenář, Executive Director of the Monetary Department
Food prices help slow inflation in May
The CNB comments on the May 2026 inflation figures
As expected, annual inflation slowed from 2.5% in April to 2.1% in May. This represented a partial correction following the sharp increase in inflation recorded in March and April.
Inflation rose by almost 1 percentage point in March and April, driven by a sharp increase in fuel prices. Fuel prices broadly stabilised in May, and other factors, such as still subdued food prices, thus came to the fore. The annual decline in food and beverage prices deepened from -1.3% in April to -1.9% in May, the steepest drop since summer 2024. However, agricultural commodity prices and month-on-month food price inflation suggest that this trend in food prices is gradually approaching a turning point. Except for volatile items, price developments remained stable and broadly continued their previous trend.
Core inflation remained at 2.9% year on year in May for the third consecutive month. Growth in goods prices slowed slightly (from 0.6% to 0.3% year on year). By contrast, services inflation accelerated again by 0.1 percentage point (to 4.6% year on year). Within services, the closely monitored cost of owner-occupied housing (imputed rent) slowed somewhat to 5.3% year on year in May. Conversely, growth in market rents picked up (6.5% year on year), reaching its highest level in a year and a half. Overall, services inflation, and hence core inflation, remains elevated.
Due partly to the impacts of the Middle East conflict, we expect headline inflation to fluctuate between 2% and 3% in the rest of this year. The elevated core inflation and the increase in the inflation outlook driven by global cost pressures are reasons for increased caution. Importantly, domestic monetary policy continues to have a restrictive effect despite the previous rise in inflation.
Petr Sklenář, Executive Director of the Monetary Department