CNB forecast – November 2018

Forecast:

The forecast for inflation at the monetary policy horizon

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Annual consumer price inflation 2019, Q4 2.2%
2020, Q1 2.1%

Inflation forecast – November 2018 – chart 1

Note: The confidence intervals of the headline inflation forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts. They are symmetric and widening only for the first five quarters and then stay constant. This is consistent with both the past predictive power and the stabilising role of monetary policy.

Chart data source – the inflation forecast (xlsx, 114 kB)

The monthly forecast for inflation in the period October 2018 – December 2018

Indicator 10/18 11/18 12/18
Annual consumer price inflation 2.4% 2.5% 2.5%

The forecast of monetary policy-relevant inflation at the monetary policy horizon

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Monetary policy-relevant inflation 2019, Q4 2.2%
2020, Q1 2.1%

Inflation forecast – November 2018 – chart 2

Note: The confidence intervals of the monetary policy-relevant inflation forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts. They are symmetric and widening only for the first five quarters and then stay constant. This is consistent with both the past predictive power and the stabilising role of monetary policy.

Chart data source – the forecast of monetary policy-relevant inflation (xlsx, 73 kB)

The monthly forecast of monetary policy-relevant inflation in the period October 2018 – December 2018

Indicator 10/18 11/18 12/18
Monetary policy-relevant inflation 2.3% 2.4% 2.5%

The forecast of GDP

Indicator      Year       Forecast
Annual growth of real GDP 2018 3.1%
2019 3.3%
2020 3.3%

GDP forecast – November 2018 – chart 3

Note: The confidence intervals of the GDP growth forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts. They are symmetric and linearly widening.

Chart data source – the GDP forecast (xlsx, 56 kB)

Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR)

(3M PRIBOR)

Indicator Year Forecast
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR 2018 1.3%
2019 2.0%
2020 2.3%

Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) – November 2018 – chart 4

Note: The confidence intervals of the 3M PRIBOR forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts (from the period before exchange rate commitment). They are symmetric, linearly widening and limited below by the zero lower bound.

Chart data source – interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) (xlsx, 85 kB)

Exchange rate forecast

Indicator Year Forecast
exchange rate CZK/EUR 2018 25.60
2019 24.70
2020 24.20

The forecast for exchange rate (CZK/EUR) – November 2018 – chart 5

Note: The confidence intervals of the CZK/EUR exchange rate forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts (from the period before exchange rate commitment). They are symmetric and linearly widening.

Chart data source - exchange rate CZK/EUR (xlsx, 73 kB)

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