CNB Research Seminar "Global house prices since 1950"

Prague, 31 March 2026

Roman Šustek (Queen Mary University)

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Roman Šustek is a Reader in Economics at Queen Mary University of London. He is also a Research Associate at the Centre for Macroeconomics, London School of Economics. His research interests are in the areas of housing, mortgage finance, monetary policy, and the term structure of interest rates.

Global house prices since 1950 (abstract)

What drives house prices? Applying a parsimonious model to house prices in 12 countries since 1950, we show that expectations about future fundamentals were the key driver behind major house price movements. In the model, house prices depend on the expected future housing stock, population, income per capita, and age distribution. The growth rates of these fundamentals contain persistent components, estimated from data, affecting expectations. The model quantitatively accounts for the spectacular boom and bust in Japan, the boom starting in many countries in early 1990s, and the house price cycles in Switzerland. A decomposition into the contributing factors is carried out.

Download: Global house prices since 1950 – presentation (pdf, 271 kB)