Research priorities (for 2026–2028)

Understanding changing inflation dynamics and structural shifts and how these shape the transmission of monetary policy and the design of the central bank’s policy framework and balance sheet.

Current research topics for 2026:

• How is monetary policy transmission in a small open economy affected by credit euroisation, foreign ownership and trade links to a diverse and changing set of trading partners?
• How do fiscal developments interact with monetary policy in shaping transmission, inflation persistence and output volatility in the post-2020 environment?
• What is the role of productivity and labour market changes in monetary policy transmission?
• How have the key policy-relevant long-term structural trends – such as potential growth, NAIRU, trend currency appreciation and r-star – evolved since 2020?
• How are inflation expectations formed and updated in a high-inflation environment under adaptive expectations, and how are they shaped by monetary policy? Have price-setting dynamics changed after the episode of 2021–2023?

Advancing the Bank’s modelling and forecasting tools to enhance policy analysis and communication. Focus areas include model innovation, integration of new data sources and improved consistency across forecasting frameworks.

Current research topics for 2026:

• How can the formation of expectations be modelled in semi-structural models to accurately capture the expectations channel of monetary policy transmission?
• How can the financial sector (loan intermediation) and the housing market be modelled in semi-structural models to capture the bank lending and wealth channels of monetary policy transmission?
• How can foreign demand and international trade, competitiveness and productivity best be captured in semi-structural models? How can one differentiate between particular economic sectors, such as industry and services?
• How can fiscal policy implications best be implemented in semi-structural models to accurately capture the effects of the fiscal impulse, tax changes and other discretionary fiscal measures?
• How can medium-term stability of econometric semi-structural models be ensured?
• How to empirically validate and calibrate semi-structural models, including testing parameter stability and identifying potential structural breaks?

Studying risks and vulnerabilities across banks and non-banks, and evaluating policies to safeguard the resilience of the financial system.

Current research topics for 2026:

• How does the macroprudential toolkit operate in a high-rate/QT environment, including potential non-linearities and unintended effects?
• How are investment funds and other non-bank financial institutions exposed to shocks, and through which channels could these vulnerabilities transmit to banks and key markets?
• How are firms’ funding choices (bank credit vs. bond/market finance, FX/euro-linked borrowing) evolving, and what does this imply for rollover and liquidity risks?
• How do financial markets reflect and adapt to new policy frameworks, and what are the implications for financial stability?

Analysing housing and credit market dynamics, borrower resilience and the optimal monetary policy response to housing market imbalances.

Current research topics for 2026:

• What factors are driving the persistent rise in Czech house prices, and what are their relative contributions?
• How do refinancing constraints and mortgage product structures influence households’ ability to absorb higher rates and shape monetary policy transmission?
• How do productivity shifts and structural imbalances, including the role of foreign ownership, shape sectoral vulnerabilities and drive the reallocation of labour and capital in the Czech economy?
• How can hedonic housing price indices improve the assessment of housing market dynamics and their implications for monetary policy and financial stability?
• What is the equilibrium growth rate of property prices and what is the optimal reaction function of monetary policy to cyclical movement in residential property prices?
• Would adjusting the weight of property prices in the consumer basket improve the countercyclical stance of monetary policy?

Assessing how external shocks, geopolitical developments and the global financial cycle transmit to the Czech economy and affect monetary policy transmission and financial stability, including climate- and transition-policy risks.

Current research topics for 2026:

• How large are the spillovers from the policies of foreign central banks (especially the ECB and the Federal Reserve) to Czech firms’ financing conditions, investment and expectations?
• How do geopolitical risks and geographical proximity affect capital flows, exchange rate dynamics and external financing conditions for the Czech Republic?
• How does the global financial cycle interact with Czech financial markets to amplify or dampen external shocks?
• What role does the exchange rate play in monetary policy transmission and in shaping real economy outcomes in a small open economy? Has the exchange rate pass-through changed?

Advancing AI- and data-driven policy, supervision and market infrastructure – from payments and digital money to the CNB’s operating framework and balance sheet.

Current research topics for 2026:

• Where can AI methods deliver research-grade gains – forecasting and advanced document processing – under rigorous evaluation, transparency and reproducibility?
• How will technological change and AI adoption influence labour markets, inflation expectations and longer-term resilience?
• How are central bank balance sheets and frameworks evolving, and what are the implications for monetary policy implementation?