CNB forecast – Winter 2022

This forecast was published on 3 February 2022 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 21 January 2022. A detailed description of the current CNB forecast is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Winter 2022 and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts (presentation, video).

Note: Forecast in bold

• Table of key macroeconomic indicators – Winter 2022 (xlsx 72 kB)
• Chart data source – Winter 2022 (xlsx, 230 kB)

Inflation will rise significantly further at the start of this year and exceed 9%. This will be due to a further increase in core inflation and sharp growth in administered prices. Inflation will peak in 2022 H1 and then fall gradually. This will be aided by an appreciating koruna and the stabilising effect of monetary policy manifesting itself via domestic demand. Inflation will fall close to 2% over the monetary policy horizon.

Monetary policy-relevant inflation will be below headline inflation over the entire forecast horizon. Over the monetary policy horizon, monetary policy-relevant inflation will fall close to the inflation target due to the previous tightening of monetary conditions.

GDP will rise by 3% this year and its growth will accelerate slightly next year. The growth of the Czech economy will continue to be driven by household consumption, with corporate and government investment rising as well. Export growth will resume in the second half of this year. Domestic economic activity will reach the pre-pandemic level by the year-end.

Consistent with the forecast is a substantial rise in market interest rates, followed by a gradual decline from the second half of this year onwards.

The CZK/EUR exchange rate will initially appreciate in response to the sharp rise in domestic interest rates and later stabilise at just below CZK 24 to the euro.