CNB forecast – Summer 2023
This forecast was published on 3 August 2023 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 21 July 2023. A detailed description of the current CNB forecast, which was prepared by economists from the Monetary Department, is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Summer 2023 and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts.
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation (%) | 11.0 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation (%) | 10.9 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Gross domestic product (annual changes in %) | 0.1 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (%) | 6.9 | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| Exchange rate (CZK/EUR) | 23.9 | 24.7 | 24.6 |
Note: Forecast in bold
Headline inflation (in %)
| Headline inflation in 2023 Q3 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2023 | August 2023 | September 2023 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 |
| 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
Inflation will slow further over the next few months. However, the drop in inflation will halt temporarily in 2023 Q4 due to the statistical effect of the energy savings tariff. Inflation will return close to the 2% target at the beginning of 2024.
Monetary policy-relevant inflation (in %)
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation in 2023 Q3 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2023 | August 2023 | September 2023 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 |
| 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
Monetary policy-relevant inflation will be slightly below headline inflation over the entire outlook.
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %)
In the second half of the year, the economy will start to grow again and accelerate further in 2024.
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (in %)
Consistent with the baseline scenario of the forecast is a decline in market interest rates over the entire outlook.
Exchange rate (CZK/EUR)
The forecast assumes that the koruna will weaken slightly over the next few quarters.
