CNB forecast – Summer 2022

This forecast was published on 4 August 2022 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 22 July 2022. A detailed description of the current CNB forecast is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Summer 2022 and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts.

Note: Forecast in bold

• Chart data source – Summer 2022 (xlsx, 198 kB)
• Table of key macroeconomic indicators – Summer 2022 (xlsx 72 kB)

Inflation will exceed 20% in late summer and early autumn. Thereafter, inflation will start to fall quickly, returning close to the 2% target over the monetary policy horizon, i. e. in the first half of 2024.

Monetary policy-relevant inflation will be at around the same level as headline inflation over the entire outlook. Monetary policy-relevant inflation will fall close to the 2% inflation target over the monetary policy horizon due in part to the previous tightening of monetary conditions.

The economy will contract in the second half of 2022. This will be due largely to a drop in household consumption owing to a decline in real household income. Economic growth will start to grow again next year.

Consistent with the forecast, in which the central bank sets interest rates in order to achieve the 2% target at a monetary policy horizon 18–24 months ahead, is broad stability of market interest rates initially, followed by a gradual decline in rates next year.

The koruna will weaken slightly below CZK 26 to the euro by mid-2023 and subsequently appreciate slightly.