CNB forecast – Autumn 2022
This forecast was published on 3 November 2022 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 21 October 2022. A detailed description of the current CNB forecast is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Autumn 2022 and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts.
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation (%) | 15.8 | 9.1 | 2.4 |
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation (%) | 15.3 | 8.9 | 2.3 |
| Gross domestic product (annual changes in %) | 2.2 | -0.7 | 2.5 |
| Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (%) | 6.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 |
| Exchange rate (CZK/EUR) | 24.6 | 24.8 | 24.7 |
Note: Forecast in bold
Headline inflation (in %)
| Headline inflation in 2022 Q4 and at the monetary policy horizon (in %) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2022 | November 2022 | December 2022 | 2024 Q1 | 2024 Q2 |
| 17.4% | 18.8% | 19.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% |
Inflation will rise above 18% in 2022 Q4. Thereafter, inflation will start to decrease, returning close to the 2% target over the monetary policy horizon, i. e. in the first half of 2024.
Monetary policy-relevant inflation (in %)
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation in 2022 Q4 and at the monetary policy horizon (in %) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2022 | November 2022 | December 2022 | 2024 Q1 | 2024 Q2 |
| 17.2% | 17.3% | 17.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% |
Monetary policy-relevant inflation will be below headline inflation over the entire outlook.
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %)
The economy will contract in the coming period. The economy will not start to expand fully until 2024.
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (in %)
Consistent with the forecast is rise in market interest rates initially, followed by a gradual decline in rates next year.
Exchange rate (CZK/EUR)
The CZK/EUR exchange rate will be broadly stable in the coming quarters.
