CNB forecast – Winter 2026
This forecast, which was prepared by economists from the Monetary Department, was published on 5 February 2026 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 23 January 2026.
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (%) | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Gross domestic product (annual changes in %) | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| 3M PRIBOR interest rates (%) | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 |
| CZK/EUR exchange rate | 24.7 | 24.4 | 24.5 |
Note: Forecast in bold
Inflation (in %)
Inflation in 2026 Q1 and at the monetary policy horizon
| January 2026 | February 2026 | March 2026 | 2027 Q1 | 2027 Q2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
Inflation will be below 2% this year and return very close to the target at the start of 2027.
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %)
Growth in domestic economic activity will be around 3% this year and next year.
3M PRIBOR interest rates (in %)
Consistent with the forecast is broad stability of short-term market interest rates in the first half of this year, followed by a slight increase in rates.
CZK/EUR Exchange rate
The koruna will be broadly stable over the outlook horizon.
