I couldn’t tell from the chart that shows the expected movements of interbank interest rates whether today’s increase already covers the increase at the close of the year that you mentioned, or whether the forecast expects that there may be another increase in December.
You can see the chart again here. Today’s rate increase, if future developments are as currently expected by the forecast, should basically be enough as regards the close of this year. Nonetheless, we work with a sensitivity scenario which says that the response as regards the foreign exchange market may differ from what the forecast expects at the moment. The factors of global market uncertainty on markets may continue to dominate. That may lead to a weaker koruna compared to the current forecast. That, of course, wouldn’t rule out the possibility of one more rate increase at the short horizon we are talking about. But, as I said, this is an alternative to the baseline scenario, which assumes that probably nothing more will happen this year in this regard.
How do you think the Bank Board will change when the new members come in at the next meeting?
This is a very complex question. It’s hard to tell. I think there will be no fundamental change in the way our decisions are formulated, prepared and justified in analytical and forecasting terms. The debate itself, of course, will probably differ somewhat, as we are all different. After the current colleagues depart and the new ones arrive, it will of course reflect their personalities and their focus and the factors they accentuate in their monetary policy considerations. Basically, to cut a long story short, there’ll be no big changes and I expect some continuity of the current trend. The Bank Board isn’t homogeneous even now. Various views are expressed, of course. You heard that the range of the views today was rather wide, from a rate increase of 50 basis points to a preference for leaving rates unchanged for the time being. The middle view prevailed, saying let’s continue at this moderate, expected pace; it’s in line with economic fundamentals. So I don’t expect anything dramatic in this regard. Our decisions are always based on the current situation as we analyse it, especially together with our colleagues from the Monetary Department. And then, as I say, the individual preferences or emphases of each Bank Board member are reflected.
Could you please summarise the arguments of the Bank Board member who voted for an increase of 50 basis points?
I don’t know if I’ll be able to summarise them accurately enough. Again, very generally speaking, it’s about the emphasis on certain factors. The member who proposed this sharper increase believes that the situation is ripe enough to allow us to take a faster step towards rates that are neutral in terms of monetary policy. I didn’t register any other special reasons in the debate or in the proposal. It’s really about the degree of forcefulness.