Spillover of the ECB’s Monetary Policy Outside the Euro Area: How Different is Conventional From Unconventional Policy?

This paper studies the macroeconomic impact of ECB policy on the euro area and six non-EMU countries. The analysis is based on the evolution of a synthetic index of overall euro area monetary conditions (MCI) that can be decomposed into conventional and unconventional policy measures. A standard monetary VAR including the MCI subcomponents shows that the transmission of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area is quite different than under conventional policy: prices react quickly, but the response of output (industrial production) is muted. A block-restricted VAR analysis confirms that euro area monetary policy spills over to the macroeconomic developments of non-EMU countries. While conventional monetary policy has a generalised effect on economic activity, exchange rates and prices, unconventional measures have generated a variety of responses. Exchange rates respond rather quickly, but an effect on the real economy is found only for some countries, and inflation remains largely unaffected.

JEL codes: E58, F42

Keywords: ECB, monetary policy, synthetic indicator, unconventional measures, VAR

Issued: December 2014

Download: CNB WP 15/2014 (pdf, 366 kB)