CNB forecast – August 2020
(Announced on 6th August 2020)
Headline inflation
at the monetary policy horizon
| Indicator | Horizon | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Annual headline inflation | 2021, Q3 | 2.2% |
| 2021, Q4 | 2.2% |
Note: The confidence intervals of the headline inflation forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts and are symmetric. They are widening only for the first five quarters and then stay constant. This is consistent with both the past predictive power and the stabilising role of monetary policy.
Chart data source – the inflation forecast (xlsx, 107 kB)
in the period July 2020 – September 2020
| Indicator | 7/20 | 8/20 | 9/20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual headline inflation | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% |
Monetary policy-relevant inflation
at the monetary policy horizon
| Indicator | Horizon | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Annual monetary policy-relevant inflation | 2021, Q3 | 2.0% |
| 2021, Q4 | 2.0% |
Note: The confidence intervals of the monetary policy-relevant inflation forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts and are symmetric. They are widening only for the first five quarters and then stay constant. This is consistent with both the past predictive power and the stabilising role of monetary policy.
Chart data source – the forecast of monetary policy-relevant inflation (xlsx, 108 kB)
in the period July 2020 – September 2020
| Indicator | 7/20 | 8/20 | 9/20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual monetary policy-relevant inflation | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% |
Gross domestic product
| Indicator | Year | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Annual growth of real GDP | 2020 | -8.2% |
| 2021 | 3.5% | |
| 2022 | 4.0% |
Note: The current uncertainty regarding future GDP growth is much higher than implied by the historical forecast errors. The confidence intervals of the GDP growth forecast have therefore been widened significantly to reflect this increased uncertainty.
Chart data source – the GDP forecast (xlsx, 96 kB)
Interest rates (3M PRIBOR)
| Indicator | Year | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Interest rates 3M PRIBOR | 2020 | 0.8% |
| 2021 | 0.4% | |
| 2022 | 1.1% |
Note: The confidence intervals of the 3M PRIBOR forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts (with the exception of the exchange rate commitment period). They are symmetric, linearly widening and limited below by the zero lower bound.
Chart data source – interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) (xlsx, 93 kB)
Exchange rate
| Indicator | Year | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Exchange rate CZK/EUR | 2020 | 26.5 |
| 2021 | 26.4 | |
| 2022 | 26.0 |
Note: The confidence intervals of the CZK/EUR exchange rate reflect the predictive power of past forecasts (with the exception of the exchange rate commitment period). They are symmetric and linearly widening.
Chart data source - exchange rate CZK/EUR (xlsx, 93 kB)
A detailed description of the current CNB forecast is available in the Inflation Report – III/2020 and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts (pdf, 8 MB).