Graph of Risks to the Inflation Projection (GRIP)
6th Situation Report 2013
The model simulation results captured in the GRIP together represent a slightly anti-inflationary risk to the forecast published in Inflation Report III/2013, i.e. a risk of a need for slightly easier monetary conditions, stemming mainly from a lower outlook for administered prices. From the perspective of headline inflation, this is only partly offset by a stronger-than-forecasted increase in excise duty on tobacco products next year. The other variables have an insignificant effect on the overall balance of risks to the inflation forecast and roughly offset each other from the point of view of the interest rate outlook.
Outside the GRIP simulation the fiscal area is a source of general uncertainty. Overall, the Monetary and Statistics Department therefore assesses the balance of risks to the forecast as being slightly anti-inflationary, i.e. tilted towards a need for slightly easier monetary conditions by comparison with the Inflation Report III/2013 forecast.
