Update of the inflation forecast

4th Situation Report 2026

Observed inflation was slightly above the 2% target in the second quarter, in line with the spring forecast. Inflation was kept close to the target by a decline in food prices, which offset the rise in fuel prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Core inflation remained elevated. Within it, rapid growth in services prices persisted, mainly reflecting continued strong growth in imputed rent. Inflation is expected to pick up gradually in the second half of this year, mainly due to the fading dampening effect of food prices. At the start of next year, inflation will temporarily rise to 3.5%, partly because of a turnaround in the growth of administered prices. Subsequently, with the help of monetary policy, it will start to decline as the energy shock fades. However, it will remain slightly above the target until the end of next year, including the monetary policy horizon.