Update of the inflation forecast

2nd Situation Report 2026

Observed inflation in the first quarter was broadly in line with the winter forecast. Its expected decline below the 2% target was due mainly to the full transfer of the supported energy sources fee to the state budget. Core inflation remained elevated, mainly because of services prices. The updated forecast, which was based on data from early March and therefore could not fully account for new geopolitical risks, expected inflation to stay in the lower half of the tolerance band this year and to be very close to the 2% target next year. The conflict in the Middle East is a specific source of uncertainty in the months ahead, one that is difficult to evaluate at present. Both the direct and indirect effects of the increase in energy commodity prices on inflation, and potential negative effects on economic activity and financial conditions will be relevant.