Update of the inflation forecast

4th Situation Report 2025

New data and information generally confirm the inflation outlook contained in the spring forecast. Headline inflation will be above the 2% target for the rest of this year and close to it over the monetary policy horizon. Core inflation will remain elevated over the entire forecast horizon. Consistent with the spring forecast was a decline in short-term interest rates in 2025 Q2. Observed inflation was broadly in line with the forecast in Q2. Its swings during the quarter were due mainly to volatile prices of food, beverages and tobacco.