CNB forecast – November 2019

Headline inflation

at the monetary policy horizon

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Annual headline inflation 2020, Q4 2.5%
2021, Q1 2.1%

Inflation forecast – November 2019 – chart 1

Note: The confidence intervals of the headline inflation forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts and are symmetric. They are widening only for the first five quarters and then stay constant. This is consistent with both the past predictive power and the stabilising role of monetary policy.

Chart data source – the inflation forecast (xlsx, 100 kB)

in the period October 2019 – December 2019

Indicator 10/19 11/19 12/19
Annual headline inflation 2.8% 2.9% 2.9%

 

Monetary policy-relevant inflation

at the monetary policy horizon

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Annual monetary policy-relevant inflation 2020, Q4 2.2%
2021, Q1 2.1%

Inflation forecast – November 2019 – chart 2

Note: The confidence intervals of the monetary policy-relevant inflation forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts and they are symmetric. They are widening only for the first five quarters and then stay constant. This is consistent with both the past predictive power and the stabilising role of monetary policy.

Chart data source – the forecast of monetary policy-relevant inflation (xlsx, 80 kB)

in the period October 2019 – December 2019

Indicator 10/19 11/19 12/19
Annual monetary policy-relevant inflation 2.8% 3.0% 3.0%

Gross domestic product

Indicator      Year       Forecast
Annual growth of real GDP 2019 2.6%
2020 2.4%
2021 2.8%

GDP forecast – November 2019 – chart 3

Note: The confidence intervals of the GDP growth forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts. They are symmetric and linearly widening.

Chart data source – the GDP forecast (xlsx, 98 kB)

 

Interest rates (3M PRIBOR)

Indicator Year Forecast
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR 2019 2.2%
2020 2.3%
2021 2.0%

Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) – November 2019 – chart 4

Note: The confidence intervals of the 3M PRIBOR forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts (with the exception of the exchange rate commitment period). They are symmetric and linearly widening.

Chart data source – interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) (xlsx, 107 kB)

 

Exchange rate

Indicator Year Forecast
Exchange rate CZK/EUR 2019 25.70
2020 25.40
2021 25.10

The forecast for exchange rate (CZK/EUR) – November 2019 – chart 5

Note: The confidence intervals of the CZK/EUR exchange rate reflect the predictive power of past forecasts (with the exception of the exchange rate commitment period). They are symmetric and linearly widening.

Chart data source - exchange rate CZK/EUR (xlsx, 94 kB)

 

A detailed description of the current CNB forecast is available in the Inflation Report – IV/2019 and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts (pdf, 3.5 MB), video.