Update of the inflation forecast

6th Situation Report 2026

Inflation has been slightly below the 2% target so far in the third quarter, in line with the summer forecast. It has been kept below the target by declines in food prices and administered prices, which have counteracted the increase in fuel prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Core inflation has remained elevated and has edged up to 3.0%. Within core inflation, rapid growth in services prices has persisted, mainly reflecting continued strong growth in imputed rent. According to the updated forecast, inflation will rise above 2% in September and exceed 3% at the start of next year. The increase in inflation will be due mainly to the fading dampening effect of food prices and a turnaround in the growth of administered prices. With energy commodity prices declining, inflation should gradually decrease over the course of next year, aided by restrictive monetary policy. Even so, it will remain above the target over the next two years.