CNB forecast – Winter 2021

(Announced on 4th February 2021)

• Headline inflation
• Monetary policy-relevant inflation
• Gross domestic product Gross domestic product
• Interest rates (3M PRIBOR)
• Exchange rate

Table of key macroeconomic indicators – Winter 2021 (xlsx 72 kB)

at the monetary policy horizon

Note: The confidence intervals of the headline inflation forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts and are symmetric. They are widening only for the first five quarters and then stay constant. This is consistent with both the past predictive power and the stabilising role of monetary policy.

Chart data source – the inflation forecast (xlsx, 122 kB)

in the period January 2021 – March 2021

at the monetary policy horizon

Note: The confidence intervals of the monetary policy-relevant inflation forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts and are symmetric. They are widening only for the first five quarters and then stay constant. This is consistent with both the past predictive power and the stabilising role of monetary policy.

Chart data source – the forecast of monetary policy-relevant inflation (xlsx, 121 kB)

in the period January 2021 – March 2021

Note: The confidence intervals of the GDP growth forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts. They are symmetric and linearly widening.

Chart data source – the GDP forecast (xlsx, 124 kB)

Note: The confidence intervals of the 3M PRIBOR forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts (with the exception of the exchange rate commitment period). They are symmetric, linearly widening and limited below by the zero lower bound.

Chart data source – interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) (xlsx, 114 kB)

Note: The confidence intervals of the CZK/EUR exchange rate reflect the predictive power of past forecasts (with the exception of the exchange rate commitment period). They are symmetric and linearly widening.

Chart data source - exchange rate CZK/EUR (xlsx, 109 kB)

A detailed description of the current CNB forecast is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Winter 2021 and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts (pdf, 9 MB).