CNB forecast – Summer 2026
This forecast, which was prepared by economists from the Monetary Department, was published on 6 August 2026 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 24 July 2026.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (%) | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Gross domestic product (annual changes in %) | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| 3M PRIBOR interest rates (%) | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| CZK/EUR exchange rate | 24.3 | 24.4 | 24.3 |
Note: Forecast in bold
More on the forecast
- Monetary Policy Report – Summer 2026 (to be published on 14 August 2026)
- Presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts (to be published on 7 August 2026)
- Chart data source – Summer 2026 (xlsx, 186 kB)
- Table of key macroeconomic indicators – Summer 2026 (xlsx, 68 kB) (to be published on 7 August 2026)
Inflation (in %)
Inflation in 2026 Q3 and at the monetary policy horizon
| July 2026 | August 2026 | September 2026 | 2027 Q3 | 2027 Q4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% |
Inflation will be slightly above the 2% inflation target over almost the entire forecast horizon.
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %)
Growth in domestic economic activity will be slightly above 2% this year and around 2.5% in each of the following two years.
3M PRIBOR interest rates (in %)
Consistent with the forecast is broad stability of short-term market interest rates.
CZK/EUR Exchange rate
The koruna will be broadly stable over the outlook horizon.
