CNB forecast - November 2011
(Announced on 3rd November 2011)
The forecast for inflation at the monetary policy horizon
| Indicator | Horizon | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Annual consumer price inflation | 2012, Q4 | 2.8% |
| 2013, Q1 | 1.6% |
The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of consumer price inflation. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.
Chart data source - the inflation forecast (xls, 135 kB)
The monthly forecast for inflation in the period October 2011 - December 2011
| Indicator | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual consumer price inflation | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% |
The forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation at the monetary policy horizon
| Indicator | Horizon | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Monetary-policy relevant inflation | 2012, Q4 | 1.6% |
| 2013, Q1 | 1.6% |
The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of monetary-policy relevant inflation. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.
Chart data source - the forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation (xls, 76 kB)
The monthly forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation in the period October 2011 - December 2011
| Indicator | 10/11 | 11/11 | 12/11 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monetary-policy relevant inflation | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% |
The forecast of GDP
| Indicator | Year | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Annual growth of real GDP | 2011 | 2.0% |
| 2012 | 1.2% | |
| 2013 | 2.7% |
The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of the seasonally adjusted GDP growth. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.
Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR)
| Indicator | Horizon | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Interest rates 3M PRIBOR | 2011 | 1.1% |
| 2012 | 0.9% | |
| 2013 | 1.4% |
The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of interest rates. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively shows the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.
Chart data source - interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) (xls, 85 kB)
Exchange rate forecast
| Indicator | Year | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| exchange rate CZK/EUR | 2011 | 24.5 |
| 2012 | 23.1 | |
| 2013 | 22.5 |
Fanchart reflects the uncertainty in the future development of exchange rate. The darkest band around the central projection corresponds to the development in 30% of possible scenarios of future. Wider bands correspond to the development in 50%, 70% and 90% of possible scenarios, respectively.
Related links
- Detailed description of the CNB forecast is available in the Inflation Report (pdf, 4.7 MB) and in the presentation (pdf, 295 kB) for CNB meeting with analysts
- Previous forecasts
- How is the forecast made?
- Interest rate forecasts and use of fan charts (pdf, 40 kB)
- Latest inflation outturns
- The CNB comments on the statistical data on inflation and GDP