CNB forecast – February 2019

Forecast:

The forecast for inflation at the monetary policy horizon

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Annual consumer price inflation 2020, Q1 2.0%
2020, Q2 1.9%

Inflation forecast – February 2019 – chart 1

Note: The confidence intervals of the headline inflation forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts. They are symmetric and widening only for the first five quarters and then stay constant. This is consistent with both the past predictive power and the stabilising role of monetary policy.

Chart data source – the inflation forecast (xlsx, 100 kB)

The monthly forecast for inflation in the period January 2019 – March 2019

Indicator 1/19 2/19 3/19
Annual consumer price inflation 2.0% 2.4% 2.7%

The forecast of monetary policy-relevant inflation at the monetary policy horizon

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Monetary policy-relevant inflation 2020, Q1 2.0%
2020, Q2 1.9%

Inflation forecast – February 2019 – chart 2

Note: The confidence intervals of the monetary policy-relevant inflation forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts. They are symmetric and widening only for the first five quarters and then stay constant. This is consistent with both the past predictive power and the stabilising role of monetary policy.

Chart data source – the forecast of monetary policy-relevant inflation (xlsx, 78 kB)

The monthly forecast of monetary policy-relevant inflation in the period January 2019 – March 2019

Indicator 1/19 2/19 3/19
Monetary policy-relevant inflation 1.9% 2.4% 2.7%

The forecast of GDP

Indicator      Year       Forecast
Annual growth of real GDP 2018 2.8%
2019 2.9%
2020 3.0%

GDP forecast – February 2019 – chart 3

Note: The confidence intervals of the GDP growth forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts. They are symmetric and linearly widening.

Chart data source – the GDP forecast (xlsx, 99 kB)

Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR)

Indicator Year Forecast
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR 2019 2.1%
2020 2.1%

Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) – February 2019 – chart 4

Note: The confidence intervals of the 3M PRIBOR forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts (from the period before exchange rate commitment). They are symmetric, linearly widening and limited below by the zero lower bound.

Chart data source – interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) (xlsx, 107 kB)

Exchange rate forecast

Indicator Year Forecast
exchange rate CZK/EUR 2019 25.00
2020 24.20

The forecast for exchange rate (CZK/EUR) – February 2019 – chart 5

Note: The confidence intervals of the CZK/EUR exchange rate forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts (from the period before exchange rate commitment). They are symmetric and linearly widening.

Chart data source - exchange rate CZK/EUR (xlsx, 94 kB)

A detailed description of the current CNB forecast is available in the Inflation Report – I/2019 and in the presentation for the Meeting with analysts (pdf, 4.5 MB), video.