CNB forecast - February 2008
(Announced on 7th February 2008)
The forecast for inflation at the monetary policy horizon
| Indicator | Horizon | Forecast | Announced |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual consumer price inflation | 2008, Q4 | 5.3% | 7 Feb 2008 |
| 2009, Q2 | 2.4% |
The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of consumer price inflation. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.
Chart data source - the inflation forecast (xls, 93 kB)
The monthly forecast for inflation in the period January 2008 - March 2008
| Indicator | 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | Announced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual consumer price inflation | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7 Feb 2008 |
The forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation at the monetary policy horizon
| Indicator | Horizon | Forecast | Announced |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monetary-policy relevant inflation | 2008, Q4 | 3.4% | 7 Feb 2008 |
| 2009, Q2 | 2.4% |
The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of monetary-policy relevant inflation. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.
Chart data source - the forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation (xls, 64 kB)
The monthly forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation in the period January 2008 - March 2008
| Indicator | 1/08 | 2/08 | 3/08 | Announced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual consumer price inflation | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 7 Feb 2008 |
The forecast of GDP
| Indicator | Year | Forecast | Announced |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual growth of real GDP | 2007 | 6.1% | 7 Feb 2008 |
| 2008 | 4.1% | ||
| 2009 | 4.6% |
The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of interest rates. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively shows the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.
Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR)
| Indicator | Horizon | Forecast | Announced |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest rates 3M PRIBOR | 2008, Q4 | 3.2% | 7 Feb 2008 |
| 2009, Q2 | 2.9% |
The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of interest rates. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively shows the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.
Chart data source - interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) (xls, 70 kB)
Related links
- Detailed description of the CNB forecast is available in the Inflation Report (pdf,1.9 MB) and in the presentation for CNB meeting with analysts (pdf, 324 kB).
- Previous forecasts
- How is the forecast made?
- Interest rate forecasts and use of fan charts (pdf, 40 kB)
- Latest inflation outturns