CNB to start publishing description of risks to inflation forecast

The Czech National Bank is to publish a verbal description of the risks to the current inflation forecast after the Bank Board’s monetary policy meetings at which no new forecast is available. The description will replace the previous Graph of Risks to the Inflation Projection. The description of the risks will enhance monetary policy transparency on dates when no Monetary Policy Report is published.

Owing to its limited comprehensibility, the Graph of Risks to the Inflation Projection (GRIP) was used by only a relatively low number of experts. The new format will contain a textual description of the risks and uncertainties perceived by the Monetary Department’s economists. It will offer similar information value to users as the GRIP without giving the impression that the estimated effect of new information on the inflation and interest rate forecasts is of high accuracy. The CNB will publish the first description of the risks to the inflation forecast on its website at 9.00 a.m. on 30 June together with the minutes of the Bank Board’s meeting held on 21 June.

The GRIP remains part of a broader set of inputs to the Bank Board’s monetary policy decision-making between two forecasts. All the documents underlying the decisions, together with a transcript of the Bank Board’s monetary policy meeting, are published six years later.

CNB Communications Division