The Working Paper Series of the Czech National Bank (CNB) is intended to disseminate the results of the CNB´s research projects as well as the other research activities of both the staff of the CNB and collaborating outside contributors. The Series aims to present original research contributions relevant to central banks. It is refereed internationally. The referee process is managed by the CNB Economic Research Department. The working papers are circulated to stimulate discussion. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official views of the CNB.

2012

• Monetary Conditions and Banks’ Behaviour in the Czech Republic
  Adam Geršl, Petr Jakubík, Dorota Kowalczyk, Steven Ongena, José-Luis Peydró Alcalde
  CNB WP 2/2012
• Real Wage Flexibility in the European Union: New Evidence from the Labour Cost Data
  Jan Babecký and Kamil Dybczak
  CNB WP 1/2012

2011

• Firm-Level Labour Demand: Adjustment in Good Times and During the Crisis
  Jan Babecký, Kamil Galuščák and Lubomír Lízal
  CNB WP 15/2011
• Hedging Behaviour of Czech Exporting Firms
  Vlastimil Čadek, Helena Rottová and Branislav Saxa
  CNB WP 14/2011
• Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic
  Michal Franta, Roman Horváth and Marek Rusnák
  CNB WP 13/2011
• Monetary Policy Implications of Financial Frictions in the Czech Republic
  Jakub Ryšánek, Jaromír Tonner and Osvald Vašíček
  CNB WP 12/2011
• Models for Stress Testing Czech Banks’ Liquidity Risk
  Zlatuše Komárková, Adam Geršl and Luboš Komárek
  CNB WP 11/2011
• Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests
  Michal Franta, Jozef Baruník, Roman Horváth and Kateřina Šmídková
  CNB WP 10/2011
• The Impact of Capital Measurement Error Correction on Firm-Level Production Function Estimation
  Kamil Galuščák and Lubomír Lízal
  CNB WP 9/2011
• Early Warning Indicators of Economic Crises: Evidence from a Panel of 40 Developed Countries
  Jan Babecký, Tomáš Havránek, Jakub Matějů, Marek Rusnák, Kateřina Šmídková and Bořek Vašíček
  CNB WP 8/2011
• Determinants of Horizontal Spillovers from FDI: Evidence from a Large Meta-Analysis
  Tomáš Havránek and Zuzana Iršová
  CNB WP 7/2011
• How Are Inflation Targets Set?
  Roman Horváth and Jakub Matějů
  CNB WP 6/2011
• Is Monetary Policy in the New EU Member States Asymmetric?
  Bořek Vašíček
  CNB WP 5/2011
• Financial Frictions, Bubbles, and Macroprudential Policies
  Alexis Derviz
  CNB WP 4/2011
• Time-Varying Monetary-Policy Rules and Financial Stress: Does Financial Instability Matter for Monetary Policy?
  Jaromír Baxa, Roman Horváth and Bořek Vašíček
  CNB WP 3/2011
• How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis
  Marek Rusnák, Tomáš Havránek and Roman Horváth
  CNB WP 2/2011
• Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What did the Great Recession Change?
  Jan Babecký, Aleš Bulíř and Kateřina Šmídková
  CNB WP 1/2011

2010

• Financial Frictions and Credit Spreads
  Ke Pang and Pierre L. Siklos
  CNB WP 15/2010
• Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective
  Filip Novotný and Marie Raková
  CNB WP 14/2010
• Central Bank Forecasts as a Coordination Device
  Jan Filáček and Branislav Saxa
  CNB WP 13/2010
• Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators
  Kateřina Arnoštová, David Havrlant, Luboš Růžička and Peter Tóth
  CNB WP 12/2010
• Central Banks’ Voting Records and Future Policy
  Roman Horváth, Kateřina Šmídková and Jan Zápal
  CNB WP 11/2010
• Who Borrows and Who May Not Repay?
  Alena Bičáková, Zuzana Prelcová and Renata Pašaličová
  CNB WP 10/2010
• Financial Integration at Times of Financial Instability
  Jan Babecký, Luboš Komárek and Zlatuše Komárková
  CNB WP 9/2010
• Effects of Price Shocks to Consumer Demand. Estimating the QUAIDS Demand System on Czech Household Budget Survey Data
  Kamil Dybczak, Peter Tóth and David Voňka
  CNB WP 8/2010
• The Margins of Labour Cost Adjustment: Survey Evidence from European Firms
  Jan Babecký, Philip Du Caju, Theodora Kosma, Martina Lawless, Julián Messina and Tairi Rõõm
  CNB WP 7/2010
• Do Financial Variables Help Predict Macroeconomic Environment?
  Tomáš Havránek, Roman Horváth and Jakub Matějů
  CNB WP 6/2010
• Does Money Help Predict Inflation? An Empirical Assessment for Central Europe
  Roman Horváth, Luboš Komárek and Filip Rozsypal
  CNB WP 5/2010
• A Gravity Approach to Modelling International Trade in South-Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States:  The Role of Geography, Policy and Institutions
  Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková, Jan Babecký and Martin Raiser
  CNB WP 4/2010
• Which Foreigners are Worth Wooing? A Meta-Analysis of Vertical Spillovers from FDI
  Tomáš Havránek and Zuzana Iršová
  CNB WP 3/2010
• How Does Monetary Policy Change? Evidence on Inflation Targeting Countries
  Jaromír Baxa, Roman Horváth and Bořek Vašíček
  CNB WP 2/2010
• Relationship Lending in the Czech Republic
  Adam Geršl and Petr Jakubík
  CNB WP 1/2010

2009

• Efficient Likelihood Evaluation of State-Space Representations
  David N. DeJong, Hariharan Dharmarajan, Roman Liesenfeld, Guilherme Moura and Jean-Francois Richard
  CNB WP 15/2009
• Banking Crises and the Rules of the Game
  Charles W. Calomiris
  CNB WP 14/2009
• The Merton Approach to Estimating Loss Given Default: Application to the Czech Republic
  Jakub Seidler and Petr Jakubík
  CNB WP 13/2009
• Housing Price Bubbles and their Determinants in the Czech Republic and its Regions
  Michal Hlaváček, Luboš Komárek
  CNB WP 12/2009
• Changes in the Czech Wage Structure: Does Immigration Matter?
  Kamil Dybczak, Kamil Galuščák
  CNB WP 11/2009
• Perception is always Right: CNB´s Monetary Policy in the Media
  Jiří Böhm, Petr Král, Branislav Saxa
  CNB WP 10/2009
• Funding Costs and Loan Pricing by Multinational Bank Affiliates
  Alexis Derviz, Marie Raková
  CNB WP 9/2009
• Heterogeneity in Bank Pricing Policies:The Czech Evidence
  Roman Horváth, Anca Maria Podpiera
  CNB WP 8/2009
• The Impact of Early Retirement Incentives on Labor Market Participation: Evidence from a Parametric Change in the Czech Republic
  David Kocourek, Filip Pertold
  CNB WP 7/2009
• Reform Redux: Measurement, Determinants and Reversals
  Nauro F. Campos, Roman Horváth
  CNB WP 6/2009
• The Determination of Wages of Newly Hired Employees: Survey Evidence on Internal versus External Factors
  Kamil Galuščák, Mary Keeney, Daphne Nicolitsas, Frank Smets, Pawel Strzelecki, Matija Vodopivec
  CNB WP 5/2009
• Downward Nominal and Real Wage Rigidity: Survey Evidence from European Firms
  Jan Babecký, Philip Du Caju, Theodora Kosma, Martina Lawless, Julián Messina and Tairi Rõõm
  CNB WP 4/2009
• Measuring Excessive Risk-Taking in Banking
  Jiří Podpiera, Laurent Weill
  CNB WP 3/2009
• Implementing the New Structural Model of the Czech National Bank
  Michal Andrle, Tibor Hlédik, Ondra Kameník, Jan Vlček
  CNB WP 2/2009
• The Impact of Population Ageing on the Czech Economy
  Jan Babecký, Kamil Dybczak
  CNB WP 1/2009

2008
ISSN 1803-7070 (Online - 2008-)

• Macroeconomic adjustment to monetary union
  Gabriel Fagan, Vitor Gaspar
  CNB WP 14/2008
• Openness, financial markets, and policies: Cross-country and dynamic patterns
  Giuseppe Bertola, Anna Lo Prete
  CNB WP 13/2008
• Survey on wage and price formation of Czech firms
  Jan Babecký, Kamil Dybczak, Kamil Galuščák
  CNB WP 12/2008
• The measurement of capital services in the Czech Republic
  Dana Hájková
  CNB WP 11/2008
• Time aggregation bias in discrete time models of aggregate duration data
  Michal Franta
  CNB WP 10/2008
• Stress testing credit risk: Is the Czech Republic different from Germany?
  Petr Jakubík, Christian Schmieder
  CNB WP 9/2008
• Monetary policy rules with financial instability
  Sofia Bauducco, Aleš Bulíř, Martin Čihák
  CNB WP 8/2008
• The origins of global imbalances
  Jan Brůha, Jiří Podpiera
  CNB WP 7/2008
• The price effects of an emerging retail market
  Jiří Podpiera, Marie Raková
  CNB WP No. 6/2008
• The effect of oil price shocks on the Czech economy
  Kamil Dybczak, David Voňka, Nico van der Windt
  CNB WP No. 5/2008
• The effects of monetary policy in the Czech Republic: An empirical study
  Magdalena Morgese Borys, Roman Horváth
  CNB WP No. 4/2008
• Central bank losses and economic convergence
  Martin Cincibuch, Tomáš Holub, Jaromír Hurník
  CNB WP No. 3/2008
• Policy rate decisions and unbiased parameter estimation in conventionally estimated monetary policy rules
  Jiří Podpiera
  CNB WP No. 2/2008
• Determinants of house prices in Central and Eastern Europe
  Balázs Égert, Dubravko Mihaljek
  CNB WP No. 1/2008

2007
ISSN 1803-2397(Print - 2002-2007)

• U.S. Unemployment Duration: Has Long Become Longer or Short Become Shorter?
  Pedro Portugal
  CNB WP No. 17/2007
• Welfare-Based Optimal Monetary Policy in a Two-Sector Small Open Economy
  Yuliya Rychalovská
  CNB WP No. 16/2007
• The Effects of Anticipated Future Change in the Monetary Policy Regime
  Juraj Antal and František Brázdik
  CNB WP No. 15/2007
• Inflation Targeting and Communication: Should the Public Read Inflation Reports or Tea Leaves?
  Aleš Bulíř, Kateřina Šmídková, Viktor Kotlán and David Navrátil
  CNB WP No. 14/2007
• Measuring the Financial Markets' Perception of EMU Enlargement: The Role of Ambiguity Aversion
  Martin Cincibuch and Martina Horníková
  CNB WP No. 13/2007
• Transmission of Exchange Rate Shocks into Domestic Inflation: The Case of the Czech Republic
  Oxana Babetskaia-Kukharchuk
  CNB WP No. 12/2007
• Why and How to Assess Inflation Target Fulfilment
  Jan Filáček
  CNB WP No. 11/2007
• Inflation Persistence in New EU Member States: Is It Different Than in the Euro Area Members?
  Michal Franta, Branislav Saxa and Kateřina Šmídková
  CNB WP No. 10/2007
• Unemployment and Inactivity Traps in the Czech Republic: Incentive Effects of Policies
  Kamil Galuščák and Jan Pavel
  CNB WP No. 9/2007
• Foreign Direct Investment and Productivity Spillovers: Updated Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe
  Adam Geršl, Ieva Rubene and Tina Zumer
  CNB WP No. 8/2007
• Financial Integration of Stock Markets among New EU Member States and the Euro Area
  Ian Babetskii, Luboš Komárek and Zlatuše Komárková
  CNB WP No. 7/2007
• Market Power and Efficiency in the Czech Banking Sector
  Anca Pruteanu-Podpiera, Laurent Weill and Franziska Schobert
  CNB WP No. 6/2007
• Bad Luck or Bad Management? Emerging Banking Market Experience
  Jiří Podpiera and Laurent Weill
  CNB WP No. 5/2007
• The Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time: A Predictor for Future Inflation?
  Roman Horváth
  CNB WP No. 4/2007
• The Convergence of a Transition Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic
  Jan Brůha, Jiří Podpiera and Stanislav Polák
  CNB WP No. 3/2007
• Does Reform Work? An Econometric Examination of the Reform-Growth Puzzle
  Ian Babetskii and Nauro F. Campos
  CNB WP No. 2/2007
• Measuring and Explaining Inflation Persistence: Disaggregate Evidence on the Czech Republic
  Ian Babetskii, Fabrizio Coricelli and Roman Horváth
  CNB WP No. 1/2007

2006

• Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?
  Frederic S. Mishkin, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
  CNB WP No. 13/2006
• Housing Wealth and Household Indebtedness: Is there a Household 'Financial Accelerator'?
  Richard Disney, Sarah Bridges, John Gathergood
  CNB WP No. 12/2006
• Measures of Potential Output from an Estimated DSGE Model of the United States
  Michel Juillard, Ondřej Kameník, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton
  CNB WP No. 11/2006
• Degree of Competition and Export-Production Relative Prices when the Exchange Rate Changes: Evidence from a Panel of Czech Exporting Companies
  Jiří Podpiera, Marie Raková
  CNB WP No. 10/2006
• Cross-Border Lending Contagion in Multinational Banks
  Alexis Derviz and Jiří Podpiera
  CNB WP No. 9/2006
• The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: 'Saints" and 'Sinners"
  Aleš Bulíř and Jaromír Hurník
  CNB WP No. 8/2006
• Fiscal Implications of Personal Tax Adjustments in the Czech Republic
  Alena Bičáková, Jiří Slačálek, Michal Slavík
  CNB WP No. 7/2006
• Issues in Adopting DSGE Models for Use in the Policy Process
  Martin Fukač and Adrian Pagan
  CNB WP No. 6/2006
• New Keynesian Model Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations and Adaptive Learning
  Martin Fukač
  CNB WP No. 5/2006
• Supply-Side Performance and Structure in the Czech Republic (1995-2005)
  Kamil Dybczak, Vladislav Flek, Dana Hájková and Jaromír Hurník
  CNB WP No. 4/2006
• Fiscal Sustainability - Definition, Indicators and Assessment of Czech Public Finance Sustainability
  Aleš Krejdl
  CNB WP No. 3/2006
• Generational Accounts in the Czech Republic
  Kamil Dybczak
  CNB WP No. 2/2006
• Aggregate Wage Flexibility in Selected New EU Member States
  Ian Babetskii
  CNB WP No. 1/2006

2005

• The Brave New World of Central Banking: The Policy Challenges Posed by Asset Price Booms and Busts
  Stephen G. Cecchetti
  CNB WP No. 14/2005
• The Spline GARCH Model for Unconditional Volatility and its Global Macroeconomic Causes
  Robert F. Engle and Jose Gonzalo Rangel
  CNB WP No. 13/2005
• An Economy in Transition and DSGE: What the Czech National Bank's New Projection Model Needs
  Jaromír Beneš, Tibor Hlédik, Michael Kumhof and David Vávra
  CNB WP No. 12/2005
• The Application of Structured Feedforward Neural Networks to the Modelling of Daily Series of Currency in Circulation
  Marek Hlaváček, Michael Koňák and Josef Čada
  CNB WP No. 11/2005
• Solving SDGE Models: A New Algorithm for the Sylvester Equation
  Ondřej Kameník
  CNB WP No. 10/2005
• Plant-Level Nonconvexities and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism
  Roman Šustek
  CNBWP No. 9/2005
• Exchange rate variability, pressures and optimum currency area criteria: Implications for the central and eastern european countries
  Roman Horváth
  CNB WP No. 8/2005
• Foreign exchange interventions and interest rate policy in the Czech Republic: Hand in glove?
  Balázs Égert, Luboš Komárek
  CNB WP No. 7/2005
• Deteriorating cost efficiency in commercial banks signals an increasing risk of failure
  Anca Podpiera, Jiří Podpiera:
  CNB WP No. 6/2005
• The behavioural equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna
  Luboš Komárek, Martin Melecký
  CNB WP No. 5/2005
• The monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic (evidence from VAR analysis)
  Kateřina Arnoštová,  Jaromír Hurník
  CNB WP No. 4/2005
• Determining factors of Czech foreign trade: A cross-section time series perspective
  Vladimír Benáček, Jiří Podpiera, Ladislav Prokop
  CNB WP No. 3/2005
• Structural and Cyclical Unemployment: What Can We Derive from the Matching Function?
  Kamil Galuščák and Daniel Münich:
  CNB WP No. 2/2005
• Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks to the Quality of the Aggregate Loan Portfolio
  Ivan Babouček and Martin Jančar
  CNB WP No. 1/2005

2004

• Exchange rates in the New EU accession countries: What have we learned from the forerunners?
  Aleš Bulíř, Kateřina Šmídková
  CNB WP No. 10/2004

• Beyond Balassa - Samuelson: Real appreciation in tradables in transition countries
  Martin Cincibuch , Jiří Podpiera
  CNB WP No. 9/2004
• Eigenvalue decomposition of time series with application to the Czech business cycle
  Jaromír Beneš, David Vávra
  CNB WP No. 8/2004
• Anatomy of the Czech labour market: from over-employment to under-employment in ten years?
  Vladislav Flek, ed.
  CNB WP No. 7/2004
• Credit Risk and Bank Lending in the Czech Republic
  Narcisa Kadlčáková, Joerg Keplinger
  CNB WP No. 6/2004
• Identification and measurement of relationships concerning inflow of FDI: The case of the Czech Republic
  Petr Král
  CNB WP No. 5/2004
• Consumers, Consumer Prices and the Czech Business Cycle Identification
  Jiří Podpiera
  CNB WP No. 4/2004
• The Role of Banks in the Czech Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism
  Anca Pruteanu
  CNB WP No. 3/2004
• EU Enlargement and Endogeneity of some OCA Criteria: Evidence from the CEECs
  Ian Babetskii
  CNB WP No. 2/2004
• Predicting Bank CAMELS and S&P Ratings: The Case of the Czech Republic
  Alexis Derviz, Jiří Podpiera
  CNB WP No. 1/2004

2003

• Modelling the second-round effects of supply-side shocks on inflation
  Tibor Hlédik
  CNB WP No. 12/2003
• ERM II Membership - the View of the Accession Countries
  Luboš Komárek, Zdeněk Čech, Roman Horváth
  CNB WP No. 11/2003
• Optimum currency area indices - how close is the Czech Republic to the eurozone?
  Luboš Komárek, Zdeněk Čech, Roman Horváth
  CNB WP No. 10/2003
• Credit Risk, Systemic Uncertainties and Economic Capital Requirements for an Artificial Bank Loan Portfolio
  Alexis Derviz, Narcisa Kadlčáková, Lucie Kobzová
  CNB WP No. 9/2003
• Price convergence: What can the Balassa-Samuelson model tell us?
  Tomáš Holub, Martin Čihák
  CNB WP No. 8/2003
• Czech fiscal policy: Introductory analysis
  Vladimír Bezděk, Kamil Dybczak, Aleš Krejdl
  CNB WP No. 7/2003
• FOREX microstructure, invisible price determinants, and the central bank's understanding of exchange rate formation
  Alexis Derviz
  CNB WP No. 6/2003
• Some exchange rates are more stable than others: short-run evidence from transition countries
  Aleš Bulíř
  CNB WP No. 5/2003
• Components of the Czech koruna risk premium in a multiple-dealer FX market
  Alexis Derviz
  CNB WP No. 4/2003
• Determining factors of the Czech foreign trade balance: Structural Issues in Trade Creation
  Vladimír Benáček, Ladislav Prokop, Jan Á. Víšek
  CNB WP No. 3/2003
• Price convergence to the EU: What do the 1999 ICP data tell us?
  Martin Čihák, Tomáš Holub
  CNB WP No. 2/2003
• Microfoundations of the wage inflation in the Czech Republic
  Kamil Galuščák, Daniel Münich
  CNB WP No. 1/2003

2002

• Sectoral productivity and real exchange rate appreciation: much ado about nothing?
  Vladislav Flek, Lenka Marková, Jiří Podpiera
  CNB WP No. 4/2002
• Estimates of fundamental real exchange rates for the five EU pre-accession countries
  Kateřina Šmídková, Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland
  CNB WP No. 3/2002
• Estimating market probabilities of future interest rate changes
  Martin Hlušek
  CNB WP No. 2/2002
• Monetary policy and the term spread in a macro model of a small open economy
  Viktor Kotlán
  CNB WP No. 1/2002