Exchange Rate Dynamics and its Effect on Macroeconomic Volatility in Selected CEE Countries
To understand the potential for forming an optimum currency area it is important to investigate the origins of macroeconomic volatility. We focus on the contribution of exchange rate shocks to macroeconomic volatility in selected Central and Eastern European countries. The contribution of the exchange rate shock relative to other shocks allows us to evaluate whether the Exchange rate is a source of volatility or a buffer against shocks as the theory suggests. The identification of the contributions is based on variance decomposition in two-country structural VAR models, which are identified by the sign restriction method. We identify countries where shocks are predominantly symmetric relative to the effective counterpart and countries where the contribution of real exchange rate shocks is strong. In general, for all the countries considered the results are consistent with the real exchange rate having a shock-absorbing nature. Finally, a significant role of symmetric monetary policy shocks in movements in real exchange rates is found for some of the countries.
JEL codes: C32, E32, F31, F41
Keywords: Asymmetric shocks, Central and Eastern Europe, monetary union, real exchange rates, sign restrictions method, structural vector autoregression
Issued: September 2015
Download: CNB WP No. 7/2015 (pdf, 851 kB)