Inflation in line with the CNB’s forecast in September 2019
The CNB comments on the September 2019 inflation figures
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 2.7% year on year in September 2019. Inflation thus declined compared with August but remains in the upper half of the tolerance band around the CNB’s 2% target. Consumer prices adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes rose by 2.8% year on year in September 2019.
Annual consumer price inflation was in line with the CNB’s current forecast in September. The deviations of the individual components of inflation from the forecast were very modest and offset each other. Core inflation was slightly lower than forecasted, whereas food price inflation was slightly higher. The year-on-year decline in fuel prices was slightly smaller than forecasted. The prediction for administered prices materialised almost fully and the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes were in line with the forecast.
The published data bear out the message of the CNB’s current forecast. According to the forecast, inflation will remain in the upper half of the tolerance band around the CNB’s target in the remainder of this year, reflecting persisting strong domestic price pressures and high growth in administered prices and food prices. Inflation will decrease at the start of next year, owing to the previous monetary policy tightening and an unwinding of the currently high growth in administered prices. It will decrease towards the 2% target during the year.
Petr Král, Executive Director, Monetary Department
Inflation in line with the CNB’s forecast in September 2019
The CNB comments on the September 2019 inflation figures
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 2.7% year on year in September 2019. Inflation thus declined compared with August but remains in the upper half of the tolerance band around the CNB’s 2% target. Consumer prices adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes rose by 2.8% year on year in September 2019.
Annual consumer price inflation was in line with the CNB’s current forecast in September. The deviations of the individual components of inflation from the forecast were very modest and offset each other. Core inflation was slightly lower than forecasted, whereas food price inflation was slightly higher. The year-on-year decline in fuel prices was slightly smaller than forecasted. The prediction for administered prices materialised almost fully and the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes were in line with the forecast.
The published data bear out the message of the CNB’s current forecast. According to the forecast, inflation will remain in the upper half of the tolerance band around the CNB’s target in the remainder of this year, reflecting persisting strong domestic price pressures and high growth in administered prices and food prices. Inflation will decrease at the start of next year, owing to the previous monetary policy tightening and an unwinding of the currently high growth in administered prices. It will decrease towards the 2% target during the year.
Petr Král, Executive Director, Monetary Department