Prediction of external variables
To assess the future evolution of exogenous factors, the CNB uses the Consensus Forecasts published by Consensus Economics. This source, which brings together the predictions of around 20 reputable research institutes, ensures consistency of data and methodology and comparability of the variables over time. It is the primary source for forecasts of external factors at the CNB. The annual figures predicted in the Consensus Forecasts are taken directly and then intrapolated to obtain quarterly data compatible with the CNB’s prediction system.
In the case of those variables which are not covered by the Consensus Forecasts but which nevertheless represent important external factors for the Czech economy, the CNB draws analogies with those variables which are covered. For example, to forecast the price of Ural crude oil, the CNB uses a statistical relationship with the price of West Texas Intermediate as published in the Consensus Forecasts.