CNB Research News

The Application of Multiple-Output Quantile Regression to the US Financial Cycle

Econometric Reviews, forthcoming.

Instant Payments in Czechia: Adoption and Future Trends

This paper examines the adoption and evolution of the instant payment system (IPS) in Czechia, focusing on how instant payments have become the dominant means of retail credit transfer. Since 2018, CERTIS enables 24/7 fund transfers in Czech koruna, significantly enhancing transaction efficiency. Data reveal that even with voluntary bank participation, there was a rapid uptake, covering the majority of the market in only 2 years after the launch. Comparative analysis shows that Czechia's IPS excels through seamless integration with existing banks, high reliability, and flexible transaction limits.

Non-Linearity of Government Spending Multiplier: The Case of a Small Open Economy

This paper focuses on the non-linearity of fiscal multipliers in the Czech Republic and their dependence on the phase of the economic cycle. Using an STVAR model, the variability of fiscal multipliers across different economic phases is analyzed. The findings show that fiscal multipliers are higher during recessions (1–1.5) and lower during expansions (0–0.5), aligning with the general scientific consensus.

Forecasting Disaggregated Producer Prices: A Fusion of Machine Learning and Econometric Techniques

This paper proposes a novel framework to the forecast of disaggregated producer prices using both machine learning techniques and traditional econometric models. Due to the complexity and diversity of pricing dynamics within the euro area, no single model consistently outperforms others across all sectors. This highlights the necessity for a tailored approach that leverages the strengths of various forecasting methods to effectively capture the unique characteristics of each sector.

Payment Holidays, Credit Risk, and Borrower-Based Limits: Insights from the Czech Mortgage Market

The Czech Republic provides a unique setting to examine the effects of loan moratoria during the COVID-19 pandemic, as it combined broad-access legislative moratoria with stricter, eligibility-based bank moratoria. Using detailed loan-level data from the Czech mortgage market, authors find that legislative moratoria were predominantly precautionary, addressing a wide range of borrowers, whereas bank moratoria were primarily utilized by higher-risk borrowers facing solvency challenges.

Trends on Europe's property market

The study examines property market trends in selected European countries since the beginning of the new millennium. The authors analyze property prices in both nominal and real terms, supplementing this analysis with property price ratios relative to rents and income. Overall, this approach allows for a deeper comparison and assessment of property market trends across countries and over time.

Central Bank Monitoring to merge with Global Economic Outlook

Starting this year, Central Bank Monitoring – which the CNB has been publishing every quarter for 20 years – will be incorporated into Global Economic Outlook, which will come out in the first month of each quarter. Global Economic Outlook will continue to focus on summarising the forecasts and outlooks of international institutions and central banks and will now additionally provide an overview of the latest monetary policy developments in elected economies. It will also still feature a thematic article focusing on a selected topic with an international scope or an academic subtext. The first extended edition of Global Economic Outlook will come out in April.