The CNB issues Inflation Report II/2009

At its meeting on 14 May 2009, the Bank Board of the Czech National Bank approved this year’s second Inflation Report, which is one of the core elements of the central bank’s communication with the public in the inflation-targeting regime. An important part of this quarterly document is a forecast for the Czech economy, representing a key input for monetary policy decision-making. The inflation forecast and the assumptions underlying it are published with the aim of making monetary policy as transparent, comprehensible, predictable and therefore credible as possible. The CNB submits the Inflation Report to the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Parliament twice a year for review. The current report is based on information available as of 24 April 2009.

CNB forecast of key macroeconomic indicators

Gross domestic product   
GDP%, y-o-y, real terms, seas. adjusted -2.41.4
Main price indicators   
Consumer Price Index%, y-o-y, end-of-period 0.92.0
Monetary-policy inflation (excluding tax changes)%, y-o-y, end-of-period1.32.0
Registered unemployment rate%, average7.69.9
Public finance deficit (ESA95)CZK bn, current p.-156.3-200.8
Public finance deficit / GDP*%, nominal terms-4.3-5.4
Public debt / GDP*%, nominal terms33.638.9
Current account   
Trade balanceCZK bn, current p. 70.080.0
Current account / GDP%, nominal terms-2.1-1.6
Exchange rates   
3M PRIBOR %, average2.22.0
* CNB calculation; the estimated government sector deficit takes into account the anti-crisis fiscal measures expected as of 24 April 2009 (see the detailed description on p. 38 of the full version of the Inflation Report), the date as of which the forecast was prepared, and thus does not reflect any additional measures.