The CNB issues Inflation Report II/2009
At its meeting on 14 May 2009, the Bank Board of the Czech National Bank approved this year’s second Inflation Report, which is one of the core elements of the central bank’s communication with the public in the inflation-targeting regime. An important part of this quarterly document is a forecast for the Czech economy, representing a key input for monetary policy decision-making. The inflation forecast and the assumptions underlying it are published with the aim of making monetary policy as transparent, comprehensible, predictable and therefore credible as possible. The CNB submits the Inflation Report to the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Parliament twice a year for review. The current report is based on information available as of 24 April 2009.
CNB forecast of key macroeconomic indicators
| DEMAND AND SUPPLY | 2009 | 2010 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic product | |||
| GDP | %, y-o-y, real terms, seas. adjusted | -2.4 | 1.4 |
| PRICES | 2009 | 2010 | |
| Main price indicators | |||
| Consumer Price Index | %, y-o-y, end-of-period | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Monetary-policy inflation (excluding tax changes) | %, y-o-y, end-of-period | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| LABOUR MARKET | 2009 | 2010 | |
| Registered unemployment rate | %, average | 7.6 | 9.9 |
| PUBLIC FINANCE | 2009 | 2010 | |
| Public finance deficit (ESA95) | CZK bn, current p. | -156.3 | -200.8 |
| Public finance deficit / GDP* | %, nominal terms | -4.3 | -5.4 |
| Public debt / GDP* | %, nominal terms | 33.6 | 38.9 |
| EXTERNAL RELATIONS | 2009 | 2010 | |
| Current account | |||
| Trade balance | CZK bn, current p. | 70.0 | 80.0 |
| Current account / GDP | %, nominal terms | -2.1 | -1.6 |
| Exchange rates | |||
| CZK/USD | average | 20.3 | 19.5 |
| CZK/EUR | average | 26.6 | 25.9 |
| MONEY AND INTEREST RATES | 2009 | 2010 | |
| 3M PRIBOR | %, average | 2.2 | 2.0 |