2015 – Macroeconomic Forecasting in Times of Covid Pandemic

(virtual seminar)

29 November – 3 December 2021

Description

This hands-on workshop focuses on the operating of small-scale structural macroeconomic models in the forecasting process during exceptional events, such as covid pandemic. Workshop program involves presentations by CNB economists who will provide the experience-based approach to forecasting and policy analysis. These presentations are accompanied by exercises employing presented forecasting approaches. To provide real-life like modelling experience, the presentations and exercises are designed around a small open economy model for the Czech economy as a case study.

Participants will have the opportunity to experience key phases of the model-based forecasting process: reviewing data and stylized facts, setting up the model structure, running the Kalman filter to identify unobserved variables and shocks, conditional forecasting, handling forward guidance issues, and preparing alternative scenarios (including the impact of covid). Matlab + IRIS environment will be used during the course.

Target group

Economists with a reasonable technical background in macroeconomic modelling and forecasting or junior economists whose duties involve/will involve modelling and forecasting.

Topics

  • Work with data and stylized facts, country specific features
  • Forward-looking models, endogenous monetary policy
  • Impulse response analysis
  • Kalman filtering
  • Forecasting and inclusion judgement (incl. covid)
  • Scenario analysis, uncertainty
Length 5 days
Language English
Number of participants 1–2 from each country
Application deadline 31 September 2021**

Note: The application should contain a short motivation letter and CV. Participants will be selected based on their modelling experience as well as assessed utilisation of the acquired methods in their future work.


** Extension of the application deadline because of the pandemic situation.