Modelling the Second-Round Effects of Supply-Side Shocks on Inflation
Since the introduction of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic in 1998, supply-side factors have had a strong direct influence on CPI inflation on several occasions. This paper uses a small-scale dynamic rational expectations model based on an open-economy version of Fuhrer-Moore-type staggered wage setting to quantify the second-round effects of selected supply-side shocks and of shocks to the nominal exchange rate on wages and subsequently on inflation. In order to analyse the desired reaction of the central bank to these shocks, optimal time-consistent policy rules are derived within the presented New-Keynesian framework. Impulse response analyses are then carried out to demonstrate the model's dynamics under various policy rules corresponding to different loss functions of the central bank. The conclusions presented in the paper suggest that the second-round effects of shocks to import prices and the nominal exchange rate on inflation should not be ignored in practical policy-making.
Keywords: monetary policy, optimal policy rules, inflation targeting
Issued: December 2003
Published as: " Quantifying the Second-Round Effects of Supply-Side Shocks on Inflation ,' Prague Economic Papers, No.2, 2004
Download CNB WP No. 12/2003 (pdf, 729 kB)