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CNB > Monetary policy > CNB forecast > Forecast archive > CNB forecast - May 2014

CNB forecast - May 2014

(Announced on 7th May 2014)

Forecast:

Table of key macroeconomic indicators (xlsx, 69 kB)


The forecast for inflation at the monetary policy horizon

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Annual consumer price inflation 2015, Q2 2.3%
2015, Q3

2.2%

 

Inflation forecast - May 2014 - chart 1

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of consumer price inflation. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - the inflation forecast (xlsx, 114 kB)

The monthly forecast for inflation in the period April 2014 - June 2014

Indicator 4/14 5/14 6/14
Annual consumer price inflation 0.2% 0.6% 0.5%

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The forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation at the monetary policy horizon

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Monetary-policy relevant inflation 2015, Q2 2.0%
2015, Q3 2.0%

 

Inflation forecast - May 2014 - chart 2

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of monetary-policy relevant inflation. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - the forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation (xlsx, 73 kB)

The monthly forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation in the period April 2014 - June 2014

Indicator 4/14 5/14 6/14
Monetary-policy relevant inflation 0.0% 0.4% 0.4%

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The forecast of GDP

Indicator      Year       Forecast
Annual growth of real GDP 2014 2.6%
2015 3.3%

 

GDP forecast - May 2014 - chart 3

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of the seasonally adjusted GDP growth. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - the GDP forecast (xlsx, 56 kB)

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Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR)

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR 2014 0.4%
2015 0.9%

Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) - May 2014 - chart 4

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of interest rates. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively shows the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) (xlsx, 85 kB)

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