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CNB > Monetary policy > CNB forecast > Forecast archive > CNB forecast - November 2012

CNB forecast - November 2012

(Announced on 1st November 2012)

Forecast:

Table of key macroeconomic indicators (xls, 88 kB)


The forecast for inflation at the monetary policy horizon

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Annual consumer price inflation 2013, Q4 2.3%
2014, Q1 1.6%

 

Inflation forecast - November 2012 - chart 1

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of consumer price inflation. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - the inflation forecast (xls, 114 kB)

 

The monthly forecast for inflation in the period October 2012 - December 2012

Indicator 10/12 11/12 12/12
Annual consumer price inflation 3.3% 3.0% 2.8%

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The forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation at the monetary policy horizon

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Monetary-policy relevant inflation 2013, Q4 1.5%
2014, Q1 1.5%

 

Inflation forecast - November 2012 - chart 2

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of monetary-policy relevant inflation. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - the forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation (xls, 73 kB)

The monthly forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation in the period October 2012 - December 2012

Indicator 10/12 11/12 12/12
Monetary-policy relevant inflation 2.0% 1.7% 1.5%

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The forecast of GDP

Indicator      Year       Forecast
Annual growth of real GDP 2012 -0.9%
2013 0.2%
2014 1.9%

 

GDP forecast - November 2012 - chart 3

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of the seasonally adjusted GDP growth. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - the GDP forecast (xls, 56 kB)

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Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR)

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR 2012 1.0%
2013 0.2%
2014 0.6%

Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) - November 2012 - chart 4

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of interest rates. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively shows the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) (xls, 85 kB)

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Exchange rate forecast

Indicator Year Forecast
exchange rate CZK/EUR 2012 25.1
2013 25.1
2014 25.2

The forecast for exchange rate (CZK/EUR) - November 2012 - chart 5

Fanchart reflects the uncertainty in the future development of exchange rate. The darkest band around the central projection corresponds to the development in 30% of possible scenarios of future. Wider bands correspond to the development in 50%, 70% and 90% of possible scenarios, respectively.

Chart data source - exchange rate CZK/EUR (xls, 73 kB)

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