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CNB forecast - August 2008

(Announced on 7 August 2008)

The forecast for inflation at the monetary policy horizon

IndicatorHorizon Forecast
Annual consumer price inflation2009, Q23.4%
2009, Q42.5%


Inflation forecast - August 2008 - chart 1

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of consumer price inflation. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - the inflation forecast (xls, 93 kB)


The monthly forecast for inflation in the period July 2008 - September 2008

Indicator7/088/089/08
Annual consumer price inflation6.9%6.8%7.0%

The forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation at the monetary policy horizon

IndicatorHorizon Forecast
Monetary-policy relevant inflation2009, Q23.3%
2009, Q42.5%

Inflation forecast - August 2008 - chart 2

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of monetary-policy relevant inflation. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - the forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation (xls, 64 kB)

The monthly forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation in the period July 2008 - September 2008

Indicator7/088/089/08
Annual consumer price inflation4.8%5.0%5.2%

The forecast of GDP

Indicator     Year      Forecast
Annual growth of real GDP20084.1%
20093.6%
 2010 4.1%

GDP forecast - August 2008 - chart 3

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of the seasonally adjusted GDP growth. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively shows the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - the GDP forecast (xls, 50 kB)


Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR)

IndicatorHorizon Forecast
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR2009, Q23.2%
2009, Q43.4%

Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) - August 2008 - chart 4

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of interest rates. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively shows the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) (xls, 70 kB)