CNB current forecast

(Announced on 4 February 2010)

Forecast:

• inflation
• monetary-policy relevant inflation
• GDP
• interest rates (3M PRIBOR)
• exchange rate

Table of key macroeconomic indicators (xls, 48 kB)

The forecast for inflation at the monetary policy horizon

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of consumer price inflation. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - the inflation forecast (xls, 121 kB)

The monthly forecast for inflation in the period January 2010 - March 2010

The forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation at the monetary policy horizon

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of monetary-policy relevant inflation. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - the forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation (xls, 74 kB)

The monthly forecast of monetary-policy relevant inflation in the period January 2010 - March 2010

The forecast of GDP

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of the seasonally adjusted GDP growth. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - the GDP forecast (xls, 54 kB)

Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR)

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of interest rates. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively shows the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) (xls, 79 kB)

Exchange rate forecast

Fanchart reflects the uncertainty in the future development of exchange rate. The darkest band around the central projection corresponds to the development in 30% of possible scenarios of future. Wider bands correspond to the development in 50%, 70% and 90% of possible scenarios, respectively.

Chart data source - exchange rate CZK/EUR (xls, 74 kB)