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CNB > Monetary policy > CNB forecast

CNB current forecast

(Announced on 4th August 2016)

Forecast:

Table of key macroeconomic indicators (xlsx, 69 kB)


The forecast for inflation at the monetary policy horizon

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Annual consumer price inflation 2017, Q3 2.2%
2017, Q4 2.4%

Inflation forecast - August 2016 - chart 1

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of consumer price inflation. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - the inflation forecast (xlsx, 114 kB)

The monthly forecast for inflation in the period July 2016 - September 2016

Indicator 7/16 8/16 9/16
Annual consumer price inflation 0.5% 0.6% 0.4%

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The forecast of monetary policy-relevant inflation at the monetary policy horizon

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Monetary policy-relevant inflation 2017, Q3 2.3%
2017, Q4 2.4%

Inflation forecast - August 2016 - chart 2

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of monetary policy-relevant inflation. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - the forecast of monetary policy-relevant inflation (xlsx, 73 kB)

The monthly forecast of monetary policy-relevant inflation in the period July 2016 - September 2016

Indicator 7/16 8/16 9/16
Monetary policy-relevant inflation 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%

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The forecast of GDP

Indicator      Year       Forecast
Annual growth of real GDP 2016 2.4%
2017 3.0%
2018 3.0%

GDP forecast - August 2016 - chart 3

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of the seasonally adjusted GDP growth. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively show the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - the GDP forecast (xlsx, 56 kB)

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Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR)

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR 2016 0.3%
2017 0.7%
2018 1.8%

Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) - August 2016 - chart 4

The fan chart captures the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of interest rates. The darkest band around the centre of the forecast shows the developments that can occur with 30% probability. The widening bands successively shows the developments occuring with the probability of 50%, 70% and 90%.

Chart data source - interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) (xlsx, 85 kB)

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